地缘央行双擎沪金内强外弱

Core Viewpoint - The recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the ongoing geopolitical tensions have created a complex environment for gold prices, with domestic markets showing stronger performance compared to international counterparts due to local demand and currency stability [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points and announced a halt to balance sheet reduction, which theoretically benefits non-yielding assets like gold [3]. - The mixed signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding future rate cuts have led to fluctuating market expectations, creating both upward and downward pressures on gold prices [3]. - The U.S. dollar index slightly decreased by 0.01% to 99.5328, providing some support for gold prices, although the dollar remains in a range-bound pattern [3]. Group 2: Domestic vs. International Markets - Domestic gold prices have shown significant gains, with Shanghai gold futures rising to 919.86 CNY per gram, a 1.05% increase, driven by stable RMB exchange rates and local demand [1][3]. - In contrast, international gold markets are experiencing a more subdued performance due to the lack of a clear downward trend in the dollar and ongoing uncertainty in economic indicators [3]. Group 3: Investment Trends - Global gold investment demand surged by 47% year-on-year in Q3, as reported by the World Gold Council, providing strong support for gold prices amid rising geopolitical risks [3]. - Despite a five-day outflow of funds from global gold ETFs, domestic investors are taking advantage of market volatility to enter positions [3]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - Key resistance levels for Shanghai gold futures are identified between 951 CNY and 1000 CNY per gram, while support levels are between 894 CNY and 950 CNY [4]. - The core trading range for Shanghai gold is expected to be between 910 CNY and 925 CNY, with a critical support level at 915 CNY [4].