【美联储会议解读】降息25bp符合市场预期，鹰派发言导致后续降息预期降温

Core Points - The Federal Reserve decided to cut interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% and announced the end of balance sheet reduction starting December 1, which aligns with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish [1] - Powell acknowledged significant divergence within the committee regarding the policy path, dampening market expectations for a December rate cut [1][4] Inflation - Powell indicated that the impact of inflation is expected to be relatively short-lived, with core inflation excluding tariff effects close to the 2% target [2] Labor Market - The labor market shows higher downside risks than previously thought, with many large companies laying off workers due to AI developments, although initial unemployment claims data has not yet reflected this [2] Economic Growth - Pre-government shutdown data suggests that economic activity may be more robust than expected, driven by strong consumer spending and continued investment in equipment and intangible assets [2][4] Monetary Policy - There are strong disagreements within the committee regarding the approach to December's meeting, and further rate cuts are not guaranteed [3] - The Fed plans to stop balance sheet reduction when reserves exceed a certain level, with a focus on maintaining adequate reserves [3] AI Sector - Current AI companies are performing well, unlike the dot-com bubble era, and the Fed's policies have minimal impact on data center investments [4] - Market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 98% to 68% following the meeting, with future rate cut expectations also being compressed [4] Bond Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to benefit from liquidity expectations and the recent decline in interest rates, although caution is advised due to potential inflation risks in Q4 [5] Stock Market Outlook - Positive liquidity expectations and a temporary easing of US-China tensions may support stock market sentiment, with strong performance anticipated in the AI sector [6] - Powell's comments on the AI boom suggest that high-valuation companies have earnings support, which may help restore market confidence despite hawkish signals [6]