Sugar Prices Recover on Brazilian Real Strength

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.05 (+0.35%) and December London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +0.60 (+0.14%) on Wednesday [1] - Sugar prices rebounded from early losses due to short covering linked to the strength of the Brazilian real, which reached a 2.5-week high against the dollar [1] Group 2: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the second half of September increased by +10.8% year-on-year to 3.137 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 51.17% from 47.73% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through September increased by +0.8% year-on-year to 33.524 million tons [2] - Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 is projected to rise by +3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 3: Global Sugar Supply Outlook - BMI Group projected a global sugar surplus of 10.5 million tons for 2025/26 [3] - Covrig Analytics estimated a global sugar surplus of 4.1 million tons for 2025/26 [3] Group 4: Indian Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's cumulative monsoon rainfall was reported at 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon and potential for a bumper sugar crop [4] - India's sugar production for 2025/26 is projected to increase by +19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons, following a -17.5% year-on-year decline in 2024/25 [4] - India may export as much as 4 million tons of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons [5]