国际观察｜内外不确定性犹存 欧元区经济复苏受掣肘

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy showed a slight growth of 0.2% in Q3, slightly above market expectations, but significant downside risks continue to hinder economic recovery [1] Group 1: Economic Performance - The economic performance of major Eurozone economies is diverging, with France growing by 0.5% driven by trade and domestic demand, while Germany and Italy stagnated, barely avoiding recession [2] - Germany's economy recorded zero growth in Q3 after a contraction of 0.2% in Q2, becoming a key factor restraining overall Eurozone economic acceleration [2] - Other countries displayed mixed results, with Sweden leading at 1.1% growth, while Ireland, Finland, and Lithuania experienced economic contraction [2] Group 2: Government Policies and Challenges - The German government is increasing infrastructure and defense spending, but analysts believe the actual impact of these stimulus measures may fall short of expectations due to factors like skilled labor shortages and high material costs [2] - France is facing political and fiscal challenges despite its economic growth, with warnings from the central bank governor about the risk of "gradual suffocation" due to rising debt levels [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, entering a phase of "extended observation" due to weak economic recovery and declining inflation [3] - The ECB's current policy is flexible, neither tightening nor fully shifting to easing, allowing room for potential economic turning points [3] - ECB President Lagarde highlighted ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions as factors contributing to uncertain inflation prospects in Europe [3] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - European economists suggest that the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, with a high threshold for future rate cuts, as inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% over the next two years [4] - The Eurozone's overall growth rate has been low, with structural pressures and cautious investment sentiment due to weak external demand and increased trade uncertainties [5] - Despite a tentative improvement in consumer demand driven by falling inflation and slight wage increases, manufacturing and exports remain under pressure from global demand weakness and cost challenges [5]