Core Viewpoint - Soybean oil futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping by 0.32% to 8122.00 yuan, indicating a bearish market sentiment [1][2]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The main soybean oil contract is trading in a range of 7900-8300 yuan, reflecting a consolidation phase in the market [2][4]. - The supply pressure is increasing due to the accelerated harvesting of soybeans in the U.S., while the domestic soybean oil inventory remains high compared to the five-year average, indicating ample short-term supply [2][3]. - The palm oil market is under pressure due to insufficient cost-effectiveness and rising inventories, while canola oil is supported by a significant decrease in domestic canola seed stocks and low operating rates of oil mills [2][3]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Ruida Futures emphasizes that the cost side of soybean oil remains relatively firm, suggesting a potential support for prices despite high inventories [5]. - Zhonghui Futures advises caution in pursuing short positions in soybean oil, highlighting the lack of bullish support from U.S. soybean oil and the need to monitor developments in U.S. biofuel policies and Sino-U.S. trade negotiations [3][5].
豆油成本端较坚挺 期货盘面继续追空操作需谨慎
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-31 06:08