降息希望浇灭澳元跌幅扩大

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is trading weakly around 0.6550 against the US dollar (USD), with a current exchange rate of 0.6541, reflecting a decline of 0.15% [1] - The market has downgraded expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, leading to a stronger USD, which has pressured the AUD [1] - China's official manufacturing PMI data for October showed weak performance, negatively impacting market sentiment and contributing to the pressure on the AUD [1] Group 2 - The Australian inflation report dampens hopes for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) this year, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut to 3.35% on November 4 nearly zero [1] - Economists surveyed expect the RBA to maintain the current rate of 3.60%, with the benchmark rate projected to bottom out at 3.35% by mid-next year [1] - Westpac's chief economist suggests that there is still room for two more 25 basis point cuts next year, with the first potentially in May and the second in August [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD is currently in a neutral trend, trading within a rectangular consolidation pattern [2] - Initial resistance is at the psychological level of 0.6600, followed by the upper boundary of the rectangle around 0.6630; a breakout could lead to a bullish trend towards the yearly high of 0.6707 [2] - Key support is at the 9-day EMA level of 0.6544; a drop below this support could weaken short- and medium-term price momentum, potentially leading to a decline towards the lower boundary of the rectangle around 0.6450 [2]