欧派家居(603833)：磨底期苦练内功 期待后续营收改善

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 13.214 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 4.79%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.832 billion yuan, down 9.77% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter revenue was 4.973 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 6.10%, while the net profit for the same period was 814 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 21.79% [1] - The company is facing pressure from the real estate cycle, impacting demand in the custom home furnishing industry, but it is focusing on enhancing internal capabilities and expanding overseas markets [1] Revenue Breakdown - Retail channel revenue for the first three quarters decreased by 4.0% to 10.484 billion yuan, with direct store revenue increasing by 4.1% to 550 million yuan, while dealer revenue fell by 4.4% to 9.934 billion yuan [2] - The company closed 333 inefficient dealer stores, resulting in a total of 7,480 dealer stores by the end of the third quarter [2] - Bulk channel revenue decreased by 12.0% to 2.066 billion yuan, with the engineering segment still under pressure due to adjustments in the real estate industry [2] Product Performance - Revenue from various product categories shrank, with cabinets, wardrobes, and related furniture generating 3.84 billion, 6.79 billion, 790 million, and 780 million yuan respectively, all showing year-on-year declines [3] - The gross margin for these categories improved, with cabinets and wardrobes seeing increases of 1.34 and 2.87 percentage points respectively [3] - The company’s supply chain management and cost reduction measures have positively impacted gross margins across product lines [3] Financial Metrics - The overall gross margin increased by 1.65 percentage points to 37.19%, attributed to better supply chain management and cost control [4] - The net profit margin decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 13.87% [4] - Other income decreased by 131 million yuan year-on-year, primarily due to reduced government subsidies [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 2.439 billion, 2.697 billion, and 2.908 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a downward revision of approximately 11.26% [5] - The target price is set at 66.45 yuan, based on a 15 times PE ratio for 2026, considering the company's leading position in the home furnishing strategy [5] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating despite the adjustments in profit forecasts [5]