Core Viewpoint - The domestic non-ferrous metal market shows mixed performance, with the main contract for casting aluminum alloy futures rising by 0.34% to 20,800.0 CNY/ton, driven by supply constraints and resilient demand during the traditional consumption peak season [1] Supply Side - Waste aluminum raw material inventory continues to decrease, with limited imports to supplement supply, which may restrict upstream supply due to high operating rates in the smelting sector [1] - Cost support remains strong due to the tight supply of raw materials [1] Demand Side - Domestic macroeconomic conditions are releasing positive expectations, and the traditional consumption peak season is enhancing downstream demand resilience, leading to a slight reduction in industrial inventory [1] Inventory - According to Wenkang Futures, the inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in major domestic markets decreased by 0.18% to 73,500 tons compared to the previous Thursday, while the inventory at aluminum alloy ingot plants decreased by 0.2% to 58,700 tons [1] Market Outlook - Nanhua Futures indicates that aluminum alloy has a strong correlation with Shanghai aluminum prices, and due to tight raw material supply and the impact of tax rebate policies, there is strong support at lower price levels. It is recommended to monitor the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum, with a buying strategy suggested if the difference exceeds 500 [1]
国内宏观释放积极预期 铸造铝合金下方支撑较强
Jin Tou Wang·2025-10-31 07:03