11月至12月鸡蛋价格或由涨跌两难向缓慢回升过渡

Core Viewpoint - In October 2025, the egg prices experienced a seasonal decline, with expectations for a transitional recovery in supply and demand in November and December [1][2]. Price Trends - As of October 28, 2025, the average price of eggs in major production areas was 2.96 yuan per jin, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 15.19% and a year-on-year decrease of 34.95% [2][4]. - Historically, October has seen price declines in 9 out of the last 10 years, with the seasonal index for October 2025 at 0.85, indicating a typical seasonal drop [2][4]. Supply and Demand Analysis - High supply levels have pressured egg prices below previous years, with the number of laying hens reaching a peak of 1.368 billion by September [4]. - Demand has decreased due to the end of holiday effects, leading to a seasonal decline in consumption, with sales in major consumption areas dropping by 3.88% month-on-month and 10.67% year-on-year by the fourth week of October [5][6]. Price Recovery Factors - The rebound in egg prices in late October was driven by three main factors: reaching a price level that encouraged replenishment, rising vegetable prices improving egg demand, and lower temperatures allowing for inventory management [4][6]. - Despite some recovery, overall demand remains limited, making it difficult to support a significant increase in total demand [5][6]. Future Price Expectations - The egg price is expected to face short-term pressure but may see long-term recovery, with a slight increase in laying hen numbers anticipated in November and December [6][7]. - The market is expected to remain oversupplied in the short term, with prices fluctuating between 2.80 and 3.10 yuan per jin, while the overall price level in late 2025 and early 2026 is likely to remain low compared to previous years [7].