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国泰海通:维持中国财险(02328)“增持”评级 目标价22.82港元
智通财经网·2025-10-31 07:20

Core Viewpoint - Cathay Pacific maintains a "Buy" rating for China Pacific Insurance (02328), with a target price of HKD 22.82 based on a P/B of 1.6x for 2025, driven by improved underwriting profits and investment performance [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit increased by 50.5% year-on-year, supported by underwriting profit of CNY 14.865 billion, up 130.7%, and total investment income of CNY 35.9 billion, up 33.0% [1] - As of Q3 2025, the company's net assets attributable to shareholders grew by 12.3% compared to the beginning of the year, indicating stable growth [1] - The EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 are maintained at CNY 2.14, CNY 2.40, and CNY 2.55, respectively, reflecting confidence in sustained profit growth driven by asset-liability resonance [1] Group 2: Premium Income and Loss Ratios - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's property and casualty insurance premium income rose by 3.5% year-on-year, with motor insurance premiums increasing by 3.1% due to stable growth in vehicle ownership and recovery in average premiums [2] - Non-motor insurance premium income grew by 3.8%, primarily driven by growth in health insurance [2] - The combined ratio (COR) improved by 2.1 percentage points to 96.1%, attributed to reduced catastrophe claims and enhanced cost control, with Q3 COR estimated at 99.1% [2] Group 3: Investment Performance - The company achieved an annualized total investment return of 5.4% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a rising capital market and optimized asset allocation [2] - The recovery in the equity market and significant improvement in expense ratios are seen as catalysts for the stock price [2]