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申万宏源:光伏反内卷持续推进 行业价格和盈利修复明显
智通财经网·2025-10-31 07:29

Core Viewpoint - The market's primary focus on photovoltaic supply-side reform is the establishment of a joint platform involving 17 major companies, aimed at addressing the supply-side contradictions in the polysilicon sector through capacity coordination, quality grading, and self-discipline in production cuts [1][3]. Group 1: Joint Platform and Industry Reform - The joint platform's formation is crucial for accelerating supply-side reforms in the polysilicon sector, which is characterized by capital and technology intensity, and is key to determining costs and profit distribution across the entire industry chain [3]. - The joint platform aims to mitigate the chaotic expansion of the industry, which has been exacerbated by previous overcapacity and price wars, leading to a "low price-loss" vicious cycle [3]. Group 2: Price Recovery and Profit Restoration - Since the initiation of the "anti-involution" measures, the number of participants has increased, and there has been a significant recovery in product prices. By the third quarter of 2025, the polysilicon industry is expected to start price increases under the "no less than cost sales" regulation, gradually returning prices above the comprehensive cost line [4]. - This price recovery has led to notable profit restoration for companies, with Daqo Energy reporting a net profit of 73.48 million yuan in the third quarter of 2025, ending a five-quarter streak of losses, and GCL-Poly Energy also achieving profitability in its photovoltaic materials business [4]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch include polysilicon firms that are central to the anti-involution efforts: Tongwei Co., Ltd. (600438.SH), Daqo Energy (688303.SH), and GCL-Poly Energy (03800) [5]. - Additionally, companies with independent alpha trends in the BC sector such as Aiko Solar (600732.SH) and LONGi Green Energy (601012.SH) are recommended for attention [5]. - As the sector's valuation and profitability recover, the supply-side reform is expected to extend to auxiliary material segments, suggesting a focus on photovoltaic film companies like Foster (603806.SH) and glass manufacturers like Flat Glass Group (601865.SH) [5].