李迅雷：本轮白酒收缩和房地产下行强相关

Core Insights - The current contraction in the Chinese liquor industry is closely related to the ongoing real estate downturn and the impact of an aging population [1][2] - The industry is transitioning from a focus on quantity to quality, emphasizing product quality, innovative consumption scenarios, and cultural depth to achieve high-quality development [1] - The focus of the industry is shifting from manufacturers to consumers, necessitating a consumer-centric marketing model to enhance brand loyalty and recognition [1] - Profit margins in the liquor distribution chain are declining, with average gross margins dropping from 20%-23% in 2019 to 15%-17% in 2024, and net profits decreasing from 8% to 3%-5% [2] Summary by Categories Industry Trends - The liquor industry is currently in a destocking adjustment phase, with companies adopting flexible operational strategies that prioritize stability and quality [1] - The main consumer demographic for liquor has decreased by 28 million, particularly affecting the 30 to 55 age group, which may further decline due to accelerated aging [1] Marketing Strategies - Companies are encouraged to develop consumer-centric marketing strategies, including interactive consumer events to enhance brand engagement and loyalty [1] Financial Performance - The average gross margin for liquor distributors has decreased significantly, indicating pressure on profitability and the need for companies to innovate product offerings to align with market demands [2]