债市日报：10月31日

Market Overview - The bond market showed a mixed performance on October 31, with the long-end strengthening further while the mid-short end remained stable [1] - The main contracts for government bond futures had varied results, with the 30-year contract up by 0.42% and the 2-year contract down by 0.02% [2] - The overall funding environment is balanced and slightly loose, supporting a strong fluctuation in the interest rate bond market [1][6] Interest Rate Movements - The yield on the 30-year government bond decreased by 1.6 basis points to 2.147%, while the 50-year bond yield fell by 4.25 basis points to 2.205% [2] - In the interbank market, most interest rate bonds saw a decline in yield, particularly long and ultra-long bonds [2] International Bond Market - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds increased, with French bonds rising by 1.7 basis points to 3.416% and German bonds up by 2.2 basis points to 2.642% [3] - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields collectively rose, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.32 basis points to 4.097% [4] Funding Operations - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 3,551 billion yuan at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 1,871 billion yuan for the day [6] - Shibor rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.4 basis points while the 7-day rate fell by 4.5 basis points [6] Institutional Insights - Guosheng Fixed Income noted that the trend of deposit liquidity is driven by various factors, primarily changes in interest rates, with expectations of continued decline in deposit costs [7] - Huatai Securities indicated that the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve marks a shift back to data reliance, which may lead to a tightening of monetary policy [8] - Dongfang Jincheng highlighted that early issuance of debt replacement quotas will help local governments free up more funds for infrastructure investment, stabilizing economic operations in Q4 [8]