Why This Remains My Top Dividend Stock Pick Going Into 2026 -- Especially After Management's Recent Comments

Core Viewpoint - Tractor Supply is showing signs of returning to double-digit earnings growth, supported by recent positive performance and optimistic management outlook for 2026 [2][3][15] Financial Performance - In Q3, comparable store sales increased by 3.9% year-over-year, with transaction count up 2.7% and average ticket rising by 1.2%, leading to net sales of $3.72 billion, a 7.2% increase [6][14] - The company plans for Q4 comparable sales growth between 1% and 5%, indicating potential for sustained momentum [7][16] - The long-term financial algorithm targets net sales growth of 6% to 8%, comparable sales growth of 3% to 5%, and operating margin between 10% and 10.5% [10][12] Growth Strategy - Management expects to open around 100 new stores in 2026, following the opening of approximately 90 new stores this year, which will support overall revenue growth [12] - The company is also focusing on strategic investments to enhance transaction strength and average ticket size [9] Capital Returns - In Q3, Tractor Supply returned $197.3 million to shareholders through dividends of $121.9 million and stock repurchases of $75.4 million, while also funding growth initiatives [14] - The dividend yield is approximately 1.7%, and the company is well-positioned to maintain its dividend amidst growth plans [11][13] Market Outlook - The company is optimistic about 2026, expecting a return to a more normalized growth cadence, which could lead to earnings-per-share growth approaching double digits [3][15] - The fourth quarter's performance is highly dependent on weather conditions, but even the lower end of the sales growth range suggests year-over-year revenue growth [16]