生猪：基本面维持宽松，期现货价格反弹受限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the fundamentals remain loose, and the rebound in spot and futures prices for live pigs is limited due to ongoing supply pressures and market sentiment [1][47]. Group 2 - From the price trend perspective, live pig spot prices have continued to decline since the second half of the year, with national benchmark prices dropping from 13.69 yuan/kg to 10.81 yuan/kg, a decrease of 2.88 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Futures prices have also seen a significant decline, with the LH2601 contract falling from a high of 15,070 yuan/ton to a low of 11,655 yuan/ton, a drop of 3,415 points [1][2]. Group 3 - The number of breeding sows has not decreased significantly, with the Ministry of Agriculture reporting a slight reduction from 40.43 million in June to 40.35 million in September, indicating that supply remains ample [7][9]. - The birth of piglets has shown steady growth, with the number of newborn piglets increasing from 4.75 million to 5.67 million, a rise of 19.4% [11][12]. Group 4 - National pig inventory and market supply continue to increase, with the total number of pigs slaughtered in the first three quarters reaching 52.992 million, a year-on-year increase of 1.8% [16][17]. - The inventory structure shows an increase in heavier pigs, with the proportion of pigs over 140 kg rising significantly, indicating ongoing supply pressure [16][19]. Group 5 - The planned slaughter volume for September was 13.32 million, but the actual slaughter was only 12.697 million, indicating unfulfilled targets and ongoing supply pressure [20][21]. - The average weight of pigs at slaughter has shown limited fluctuation, with a slight increase in average weight despite price declines [25][26]. Group 6 - Demand for pork is showing signs of recovery, driven by lower temperatures and previous price declines, with wholesale prices rising from 14.4 yuan/kg to 16.2 yuan/kg [30][31]. - The operating rate of slaughterhouses has increased, reaching a peak of 37.24% by the end of September, indicating a recovery in demand [30][33]. Group 7 - The price difference between white pigs and live pigs has narrowed significantly, indicating ongoing pressure on slaughterhouse profitability [38][39]. - The price difference between standard and fat pigs has expanded, suggesting limited supply of fat pigs due to production adjustments [38][43]. Group 8 - Overall, the supply-demand balance remains loose, with limited upward price movement expected in the near term, and the market is advised to consider selling at higher prices [47][48].