Cai Jing Wang·2025-10-31 08:29Core Insights - Starbucks reported mixed results for its fiscal year 2025, with global net revenue reaching $37.2 billion, a 3% year-over-year increase, but a significant decline in GAAP operating profit margin from 15% in fiscal year 2024 to 7.9% [1][2] - In China, Starbucks achieved revenue of $3.105 billion for fiscal year 2025, a 5% increase, outperforming the global average [1][2] - The company is in the final stages of negotiations to sell a stake in its China business, with potential buyers including prominent private equity firms and industry players [7][8] Financial Performance - Global net revenue for Starbucks was $37.2 billion, up 3% year-over-year, while GAAP operating profit margin fell to 7.9%, down 7.1 percentage points from the previous year [1][2] - In China, revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $3.105 billion, a 5% increase, with fourth-quarter revenue at $831.6 million, a 6% year-over-year growth [1][2] - The operating profit margin for the China market is not disclosed but is noted to be one of the healthiest among international markets, maintaining double-digit levels [2] Same-Store Sales and Pricing Strategy - Same-store sales in China declined by 1% for fiscal year 2025, with a 4% increase in transaction volume offset by a 5% decrease in average ticket price [2][3] - In the fourth quarter, same-store sales grew by 2%, driven by a 9% increase in transaction volume, despite a 7% drop in average ticket price [2][3] - The decline in average ticket price is attributed to aggressive promotional strategies to compete with local brands like Luckin Coffee and Kudi [2][3] Store Expansion and Market Strategy - Starbucks China opened 415 new stores in fiscal year 2025, a 47.5% decrease from the previous year, with a total of 8,011 stores by the end of the fourth quarter [4][6] - The company is focusing on lower-tier markets, having entered 166 new county-level markets, nearly doubling its previous year's expansion [2][3] - The store model has been adjusted to a "small and beautiful" lightweight model, reducing store size and focusing on takeout to adapt to local consumer habits [3] Stake Sale and Valuation - The valuation of Starbucks' China business is estimated at $4 billion, with a potential EBITDA multiple of 8 to 10 times, comparable to Luckin Coffee's valuation [8][9] - The sale may involve a consortium led by Boyu Capital, allowing Starbucks to retain a 49% stake and maintain control [8][9] - The motivation behind the stake sale is to alleviate global performance pressures and accelerate growth in the competitive Chinese market [9]