10月汽车经销商库存预警指数环比下降

Core Insights - The latest survey report from the China Automobile Dealers Association indicates that the inventory warning index for October 2025 is at 52.6%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.1 percentage points and a month-on-month decrease of 1.9 percentage points, suggesting an improvement in the automotive circulation industry's prosperity [1][2] Market Performance - The automotive market in October continued to show a strong seasonal trend, driven by local subsidy policies, the National Day auto show, and year-end promotions from dealers, alongside the implementation of the fourth batch of trade-in subsidies and the launch of multiple new models, leading to a significant year-on-year increase in orders in the first half of October [1] - After the National Day holiday, market demand experienced a cyclical adjustment, with new orders showing a moderate month-on-month decline compared to the second half of September; however, the market demonstrated resilience due to the countdown to the exemption of the new energy vehicle purchase tax, prompting manufacturers to offer substantial discounts [1] Sales Forecast - Despite adjustments or suspensions of trade-in policies in various regions, which weakened some policy incentives, the market is still expected to maintain a "golden September and silver October" pattern, with an estimated terminal sales volume of approximately 2.4 million passenger vehicles in October [1] Dealer Conditions - Under the dual drivers of policy and marketing activities, foot traffic and order volume in stores increased in October; however, the operational conditions for dealers did not see substantial improvement, as some manufacturers increased sales targets for dealers, leading to ongoing issues with inventory accumulation and tight liquidity [1] Index Analysis - In October, the inventory, workforce, and operational condition sub-indices showed a month-on-month decline, while the market demand and average daily sales sub-indices increased [2] - The national total index for October stands at 52.6%, with regional indices showing the North at 51.3%, East at 51.2%, West at 48.3%, and South at 56.0% [2] Brand Performance - Among brand types, the indices for luxury and imported brands, as well as joint venture brands, decreased month-on-month, while the index for domestic brands increased [3] - Looking into November, the automotive industry is entering a critical phase for achieving annual targets, with the "Double 11" shopping season, the Guangzhou auto show, and continued "two new" subsidies expected to enhance terminal demand, with sales anticipated to remain stable or slightly increase compared to October [3]