金价回调，黄金还值不值得投？达里奥这样说

Core Viewpoint - Ray Dalio emphasizes that gold is a form of currency that is least likely to depreciate or be confiscated, reinforcing its historical role as a stable monetary asset [1][3]. Group 1: Historical Context and Current Significance - Throughout history, currencies have either been backed by hard assets or have been fiat currencies, with the former allowing fixed exchange rates to convert paper money into tangible assets [3]. - The collapse of currency systems often occurs when there is significant debt, leading to either a deflationary depression or inflationary pressures depending on whether governments adhere to or abandon gold convertibility [3]. - Since the shift to a pure fiat currency system in 1971, historical analysis of previous fiat systems during debt excess has become increasingly relevant, with central banks typically resorting to significant money supply increases, driving inflation and gold prices higher [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies and Risk Considerations - While other currencies can store wealth effectively, holding cash can yield higher returns when interest rates sufficiently offset depreciation risks, suggesting a strategic approach to asset allocation based on market conditions [4]. - Gold's low confiscation risk is a significant advantage, as it does not rely on third-party payment promises and is immune to cyber attacks, making it a preferred asset during financial crises and geopolitical tensions [4][5]. - In times of monetary, debt crises, and wars, the value of gold tends to rise significantly due to increased confiscation risks, highlighting its role as a fundamental currency that has proven its value over millennia [5].