李迅雷：本轮白酒收缩和房地产强相关，白酒消费人群已减少2800万

Core Insights - The current contraction in the Chinese liquor industry is significantly correlated with the ongoing downturn in the real estate sector and is also influenced by the aging population [1][2] Group 1: Industry Trends - The shift from quantity growth to quality growth is evident, with the industry currently in a destocking adjustment phase. Liquor companies are adopting flexible operational strategies, emphasizing a pragmatic approach focused on stability and quality [1] - The industry is transitioning its focus from manufacturers to consumers. The primary consumer demographic, aged 30 to 55, has decreased by 28 million, which may further decline due to accelerated aging [1][2] Group 2: Profit Distribution - The average gross margin for liquor distributors has decreased from 20%-23% in 2019 to approximately 15%-17% in 2024, while the average net profit has dropped from 8% to 3%-5% [2] - To address profit changes and pressures such as price inversion, liquor companies are encouraged to develop new products and categories that resonate more with the market and younger consumers [2]