Focus on Commodities Amid Sanctions and Seemingly Lower Trade Tension

Group 1: Oil Market Developments - Oil has experienced significant intraday movements, comparable to those seen during the Twelve-Day War in June [1] - The U.S. government has frozen all U.S.-based assets of Lukoil and Rosneft, threatening secondary sanctions on foreign banks that facilitate oil purchases from these companies, which could impact oil supplies to China, India, and other markets [3] - The potential shortfall in Russian oil supplies may increase demand for oil from Gulf countries [3] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Recent threats of new tariffs on China initially contributed to uncertainty and gains for gold, but these tensions have eased following Donald Trump's confirmation of a meeting with Xi Jinping [2] - The probability of two more Federal Reserve cuts before the end of the year is currently at 98%, which may influence gold prices [2] - Gold is expected to remain above $4,000 for the foreseeable future [5] Group 3: Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key upcoming releases include American inflation data on October 24, the Federal Reserve's meeting and expected rate cut on October 29, and the double Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on November 7 [4] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown has disrupted regular data releases, potentially affecting the reliability of upcoming figures [4]