Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-10-31 10:24Core Viewpoint - The capital market is losing confidence in Pop Mart as the LABUBU craze fades, despite the company reporting significant revenue growth in Q3 2025 [1][3][9]. Group 1: Financial Performance - Pop Mart's Q3 2025 revenue increased by 245% year-on-year, with Chinese market revenue up by 185% to 190%, and overseas revenue soaring by 365% to 370% [1][3]. - The company's stock price fell by over 30% since reaching a peak market value of over 400 billion HKD in late August, resulting in a market cap loss of nearly 100 billion HKD [5][9]. - The revenue from the LABUBU series reached 48.14 billion CNY in H1 2025, accounting for 34.7% of total revenue, indicating a heavy reliance on a single IP [5][17]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the Q3 announcement, Pop Mart's stock price dropped by 8.08% on the announcement day and further declined by 9.36% on October 23 [4][9]. - The LABUBU secondary market prices plummeted over 80%, reflecting a loss of confidence in the brand's sustainability [8][9]. - Despite temporary boosts from celebrity endorsements, such as appearances by Tim Cook and David Beckham, the stock price could not maintain its gains [9][10]. Group 3: Product Strategy and Challenges - Pop Mart's attempt to extend the LABUBU brand with the "Mini LABUBU" series failed, with prices dropping over 50% shortly after launch [11][13]. - The company's strategy to increase production capacity has led to a decline in the perceived value of LABUBU, transitioning it from an investment item back to a consumer product [14][15]. - The company is at a critical juncture, needing to prove that LABUBU's success can be replicated with new IPs to maintain market confidence [15][29]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Pop Mart's reliance on LABUBU raises concerns about future revenue growth, especially as the market questions the sustainability of its current success [9][28]. - The company has invested approximately 3 billion CNY in IP development, but this is significantly lower than competitors like Disney, indicating a need for increased investment to build a robust IP portfolio [22][29]. - If Pop Mart cannot deliver a new hit IP by 2026, it may face a shift in market perception from a high-growth leader to a mature consumer goods company, leading to lower valuation multiples [29].