海外买家退场、利率重压，澳大利亚楼市还值得投资吗？

Core Insights - The Australian real estate market is experiencing a "slow bull" trend characterized by moderate price increases, influenced by high costs and interest rates [1][7] - Auction activity has surged, with 3,253 auctions held in major capital cities, the highest since last spring, and over 60% of Australians expect prices to rise in the next year [1][7] - However, not all homeowners are benefiting, as some high-end properties in Sydney and Melbourne are selling at a loss, particularly in the off-the-plan segment [1][2][4] Market Dynamics - The apartment market is undergoing structural differentiation, with "investment-oriented apartments" facing the most pressure, while mid-density owner-occupied apartments are recovering steadily [2][6] - The shift in market dynamics is attributed to rising interest rates, which have increased mortgage costs, and a recent ban on foreign buyers, impacting the off-the-plan segment that previously catered to overseas investors [4][5] Financial Pressures - High interest rates and tightened credit conditions are raising financing and settlement costs, leading to forced sales and price corrections among highly leveraged buyers [5][6] - The burden of holding costs, including vacancy taxes for overseas owners, is prompting some investors to accept short-term losses [5][6] Long-term Trends - The Australian housing market is expected to see a gradual recovery, with a focus on self-occupier demand and long-term investment strategies rather than short-term speculation [6][7] - The supply-demand mismatch remains a key issue, with construction costs and financing pressures slowing new project launches, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne [7][8] Demographic Shifts - An emerging buyer group, the downsizers, is gaining attention as older homeowners sell suburban houses for more manageable apartments in prime locations [8][9] - The aging population, with over 17% aged 65 and above, is expected to drive this trend, influencing market dynamics for years to come [9]