非限购周期楼市新图景！2025房地产行业年度报告重磅发布：“好城市+好房子”蕴含结构性机会

Core Insights - The real estate industry is crucial for stabilizing domestic demand, linking consumption and investment, and is expected to play a significant role in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1] Market Overview - The real estate market, valued in trillions, is undergoing a transformation to regain stability, with ongoing discussions about whether risks have been fully cleared and what future trends may emerge [2] - The report presented at the 15th China Value Real Estate Annual Conference indicates that there is still room for development in the real estate market, with the top 20 cities in terms of development investment accounting for 35% of national GDP and 21% of the population [2][10] Policy Environment - Since the second half of 2021, the policy tone has shifted from "housing is for living, not for speculation" to "stabilizing and stopping the decline," with increased frequency and support for policies from central to local governments [2][3] - Approximately 3,000 optimization policies have been introduced across various regions since 2022, including significant financial support measures for real estate companies [3] Market Trends - The current policy environment is at its historically most lenient stage, with mortgage rates, transaction taxes, and down payment ratios at their lowest levels [5] - Despite a temporary market recovery, the report indicates a decline in new home sales area by 6% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, with a notable weakening in market performance in the second and third quarters [5][9] Inventory and Supply - As of September 2025, the available residential inventory in 50 representative cities is 310 million square meters, a decrease of 2.9% from the end of 2024, with a clearance cycle of 19.9 months [9] - The market is entering a de-inventory phase, but risks have not been fully resolved, indicating that the market is still some distance from a complete stabilization [9] Structural Opportunities - The report emphasizes focusing on "good cities + good houses" to capture structural opportunities, as the dynamics of housing demand are changing due to population and urbanization trends [10][11] - There is a notable divergence in market performance among cities, with first-tier cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen experiencing population growth, while Beijing and Shanghai see declines [10] Investment Trends - Major real estate companies are increasingly focusing on core cities for land acquisition, with significant proportions of their land purchases concentrated in cities like Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen [16][19] - The land transfer revenue in 300 cities has increased by 13% year-on-year, with first and second-tier cities showing substantial growth, while third and fourth-tier cities continue to struggle [19]