14% Dividend Yield Is Not Enough

Core Insights - The article critiques the high premium of AGNC Investment (AGNC) compared to its historical valuations, emphasizing the importance of evaluating price-to-book (P/B) and price-to-net asset value (NAV) ratios over time [2][4][16] - It highlights that while AGNC trades at a premium, other mortgage REITs, such as MFA Financial (MFA), are trading at significant discounts despite better protection of book value [11][12][22] Group 1: Valuation Metrics - Price-to-BV and price-to-NAV are crucial metrics for understanding valuations in the mortgage REIT sector [4][22] - AGNC has the highest premium to projected book value among mortgage REITs, while most other types have seen their price-to-book ratios decline significantly [5][6][22] Group 2: Historical Context - Historical comparisons show that AGNC's book value has deteriorated significantly since mid-2021, while MFA has managed to protect its book value more effectively [11][13][21] - The article presents charts that illustrate the price-to-trailing book value ratios, indicating AGNC's exceptionally high valuations [14][16] Group 3: Dividend Yield Analysis - AGNC's dividend yield of 14.4% is not higher than MFA's 16.1%, challenging the notion that AGNC's premium is justified by its dividend yield [12][22] - The article argues that simply looking at dividend yields is insufficient for thorough due diligence, especially when premiums to NAV are large [25][22] Group 4: Broader Market Implications - The article warns investors to be cautious of large premiums to NAV, as most investments do not sustain such premiums indefinitely [24][22] - It emphasizes that while some mortgage REITs may trade at lower price-to-book ratios, the overall trend suggests a need for vigilance regarding valuations [24][22]