永辉超市(601933)：关店动作接近结束 调改店占比即将过半

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue at 12.486 billion yuan (-25.55%) and a net loss of 469 million yuan (-32.86%) [1] - Despite the revenue drop, the gross margin improved across various regions, indicating a potential for recovery in profitability [2] Revenue Analysis - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 totaled 42.434 billion yuan, down 22.21% year-on-year, with regional declines: East China (-31.18%), South China (-19.36%), West China (-17.28%), North China (-23.93%), and Central China (-4.04%) [2] - The decline in revenue is attributed to intense competition in the retail sector, changing consumer habits, and the company's strategic store closures and optimizations [2] Gross Margin Improvement - Despite the revenue decline, gross margins increased in all regions for Q3 2025, with East China up 1.36 percentage points, South China up 0.39 percentage points, West China up 0.28 percentage points, North China up 3.01 percentage points, and Central China up 2.4 percentage points [2] - The improvement in gross margin is expected to be driven by reduced loss rates from optimized stores and an increased proportion of high-margin processed foods [2] Store Optimization Strategy - The company closed 104 stores and opened 2 in Q3 2025, resulting in a loss of 612 million yuan from closures [2] - The average monthly store adjustments increased to 32 in Q3, up from 25 in Q2, with the total number of existing stores reduced to 450 and adjusted stores reaching 222, accounting for 49.33% of total stores [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 58.766 billion yuan, 98.990 billion yuan, and 112.145 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of -13.03%, +68.45%, and +13.29% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are -896 million yuan, 1.508 billion yuan, and 2.053 billion yuan, with a year-on-year change of -38.89%, N/A, and +36.15% respectively [4] - The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of N/A, 27.93x, and 20.51x for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]