Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-10-31 13:53Core Points - The Chinese government has included the HPV vaccine in the national immunization program, offering free vaccinations to girls born after November 10, 2011, who are at least 13 years old [1][2] - This marks the first significant expansion of the immunization program in 18 years, indicating an improvement in vaccine research and production capabilities in China [1][2] - The HPV vaccine is crucial for reducing the risk of cervical cancer, with over 70% of cases preventable through vaccination [2][3] Group 1: Policy and Health Impact - The inclusion of the HPV vaccine aims to address the rising incidence and mortality rates of cervical cancer in China, with 151,000 new cases and 56,000 deaths reported in 2022 [2][3] - Vaccination before the onset of sexual activity is emphasized for optimal protection, as studies show that girls aged 9 to 14 produce over twice the antibody levels compared to those over 15 [3][4] - The initiative is expected to promote health equity by reducing disparities in vaccination rates across different regions and income groups [2][3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The market for the HPV vaccine is projected to reach approximately 3.8 billion RMB from 2025 to 2030, driven by both existing and new demand [6][8] - The existing market consists of girls aged 9 to 15 who missed vaccination, estimated at around 40.75 million, potentially generating a market size of about 2.24 billion RMB [7] - The new market includes approximately 43.7 to 49.5 million girls entering the vaccination age annually, contributing an estimated 1.6 billion RMB over six years [8] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The price of the HPV vaccine has significantly decreased, with the national procurement price set at approximately 27.5 RMB per dose for the 2025 immunization program [5][9] - Competitive bidding has led to prices dropping from over 300 RMB to as low as 29.50 RMB, indicating a price war among suppliers [5][9] - The cost breakdown for vaccine production shows a profit margin of 17% at the new procurement price, raising questions about sustainability in the long term [9][10] Group 4: Company Responses - Currently, only two companies, Wantai Biological Pharmacy and Watson Bio, supply the bivalent HPV vaccine in China, with Wantai being the only one to report significant production in the first half of the year [1][10] - Watson Bio has indicated that it will adjust its production and sales strategies in response to market conditions following the immunization program's changes [1][10]