Gilead Stock Reverses; Why Its Buy-Side Miss Isn't The End For Its New HIV Shot

Core Insights - Gilead Sciences is experiencing mixed results in its product sales, with a notable decline in Veklury sales impacting overall performance, while HIV treatment sales, particularly Biktarvy, show positive growth [6][7][8]. Sales Performance - Gilead's total product sales reached $7.35 billion, slightly below the expected $7.43 billion, marking a decline of over 2% year-over-year [6]. - Veklury, Gilead's COVID treatment, saw a significant drop in sales by 60% to $277 million, missing the $333 million estimate due to lower hospitalization rates [7]. - Excluding Veklury, product sales increased by 4% to $7.1 billion, aligning with analysts' forecasts [7]. HIV Treatment Insights - Biktarvy generated $3.69 billion in sales, surpassing the forecast of $3.67 billion, and accounting for approximately half of Gilead's total product sales, with a year-over-year increase of 6% [8]. - Overall sales from Gilead's HIV treatment franchise rose 4% to $5.28 billion, including $701 million from Descovy, which grew nearly 20% [9]. Yeztugo Performance - Yeztugo, Gilead's newly approved HIV prevention shot, generated $39 million in sales during Q3, exceeding sell-side expectations of $35 million but falling short of buy-side forecasts of $40 million to $45 million [2]. - Gilead achieved 75% insurance coverage for Yeztugo in the U.S. ahead of schedule, with about 80% of patients having $0 co-pays [3]. Guidance and Future Outlook - Gilead raised the low end of its 2025 product sales outlook to $27.4 billion to $28.7 billion, which aligns with analysts' consensus of $28.71 billion [12]. - The company also increased its full-year earnings guidance to a range of $8.05 to $8.25 per share, surpassing the analysts' expectation of $8.04 [12].