Pfizer Q3 Earnings Loom: Buy, Sell or Hold PFE Stock Ahead of Results?

Core Viewpoint - Pfizer is set to report its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, with sales estimated at $16.6 billion and earnings per share (EPS) at 66 cents, reflecting a decline in earnings estimates over the past month [1][6]. Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Pfizer's Q3 2025 earnings has decreased from $3.15 to $3.06 per share in the last 30 days [1]. - Current estimates for Q1 and Q2 earnings are 66 cents and 72 cents, respectively, with a notable decline of 17.5% for Q1 estimates over the past 60 days [2]. Earnings Surprise History - Pfizer has consistently exceeded earnings expectations in the last four quarters, with an average earnings surprise of 43.78% [2][3]. - The last reported quarter showed a 34.48% earnings surprise, indicating strong performance [3]. Factors Influencing Upcoming Results - Sales growth is expected from products like Vyndaqel, Padcev, and Eliquis, despite challenges from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) impacting U.S. revenues [6][8]. - The Primary Care segment is anticipated to see increased revenues from Eliquis, with alliance revenues estimated at $1.94 billion [9]. - Vaccine sales, particularly for Prevnar, are projected to rise, with estimates for Prevnar family sales at $1.79 billion [10]. Segment Expectations - Oncology sales are expected to benefit from higher sales of Xtandi, Lorbrena, and Padcev, while Ibrance sales may decline [12]. - Specialty Care sales of Vyndaqel are likely to remain strong, with estimates at $1.63 billion [13]. Price Performance and Valuation - Pfizer's stock has declined by 8.4% this year, contrasting with a 3.4% increase in the industry [15]. - The stock is trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 7.75, significantly lower than the industry average of 15.23 [17]. Investment Thesis - Pfizer is recovering from a slowdown, with non-COVID operational revenues improving due to key products and acquisitions [20]. - The company faces challenges from upcoming patent expirations but expects EPS growth despite limited top-line growth [22][23]. - Recent acquisitions, including the proposed buyout of Metsera for $4.9 billion, are expected to enhance Pfizer's pipeline but may weigh on near-term earnings [24][25]. Long-Term Outlook - Long-term investors are encouraged to stay invested due to Pfizer's attractive valuation, high dividend yield, and growth prospects from new drugs and a robust pipeline [26].