lululemon Dips Below 50-Day SMA: Buy Now or Stay on the Sidelines?

Core Insights - lululemon athletica inc. (LULU) shares have experienced a significant decline, losing 56.1% year-to-date, underperforming both the Zacks Textile – Apparel industry and the broader Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector [6][7][24] - The stock has fallen below its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA), indicating a bearish sentiment and a long-term downward trend [1][9][24] - The company has cut its fiscal year 2025 guidance due to sluggish U.S. demand and increased tariff-related costs, leading to a cautious outlook from analysts [9][14][25] Performance Metrics - LULU's stock closed at $170.30 on October 29, 2025, below the 50-day SMA of $178.55 [1] - The stock is currently trading 1.1% above its 52-week low of $159.25 and 60.3% below its 52-week high of $423.32 [10] - The company anticipates net revenues of $10.85-$11 billion for fiscal 2025, reflecting a 2-4% year-over-year growth [14] Competitive Landscape - LULU's performance is notably weaker than its competitor NIKE Inc., which has declined 14.3% year-to-date, and other competitors like Gildan Activewear and Ralph Lauren, which have seen growth of 25.1% and 39.8%, respectively [7][24] - The current forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple for LULU is 12.92X, lower than the industry average of 16.13X and the S&P 500's average of 24.03X, indicating a relatively cheap valuation [20][21] Financial Outlook - Analysts have revised down earnings estimates for LULU, reflecting skepticism about the company's near-term growth potential [18] - For fiscal 2025, the Zacks Consensus Estimate suggests a revenue growth of 3.7% year-over-year, while EPS is expected to decline by 11.8% [19] - Management expects a decline in operating margin by 390 basis points for fiscal 2025 due to tariff pressures and markdowns [13] Strategic Initiatives - The company is undergoing a reset phase, aiming to rebalance its merchandise mix and accelerate innovation, with plans to increase the share of new styles from 23% to 35% by spring 2026 [16] - Despite strong international performance, particularly in China, the execution gap in the U.S. market and margin pressures are contributing to the stock's decline [16][24]