Sterling Stock Before Q3 Earnings: Buy Now or Wait for Results?

Core Insights - Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (STRL) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on November 3, 2025, after market close [1] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, Sterling achieved adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.69, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 19% and reflecting a 41% year-over-year increase [2] - Revenues reached $614.5 million, surpassing estimates by 10.7% and increasing by 21% compared to the previous year [2] - The gross margin expanded by 400 basis points to 23%, driven by a shift towards higher-margin projects [2] - Adjusted EBITDA rose by 35% from the same quarter last year, supported by solid revenue growth and improved margins [2] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the third-quarter EPS remains unchanged at $2.79, indicating a 41.6% growth from the year-ago figure [4] - The consensus revenue estimate for the third quarter is $612.4 million, reflecting a 3.1% year-over-year growth [4] - For the full year 2025, STRL is projected to register a 56.9% EPS growth compared to the previous year [5] Segment Performance - E-Infrastructure Solutions, accounting for 51% of second-quarter 2025 revenues, is expected to be the key growth driver, benefiting from strong demand in data center development [11] - The Transportation Solutions segment, which made up 32% of total second-quarter revenues, is anticipated to perform steadily, supported by solid backlog levels and federal funding [13] - The Building Solutions segment, contributing 17% of total second-quarter revenues, is expected to face mixed conditions due to elevated mortgage rates, although steady construction activity in key markets may provide some support [15] Market Position and Valuation - STRL shares have increased by 125% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Zacks Engineering – R&D Services industry, which grew by 16.4% [18] - The stock currently trades at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 35.29, representing a 39.6% premium over the industry average of 25.28 [19] - Compared to peers like AECOM, Fluor, and KBR, STRL appears overvalued, with their forward P/E ratios at 23.44, 22.21, and 10.08, respectively [22] Growth Drivers - The company is expected to maintain growth momentum in Q3 2025, driven by high-margin markets and strategic acquisitions [10] - Expansion into new geographies and a healthy project pipeline are likely to provide multi-year visibility [10] - Continued focus on mission-critical infrastructure work, particularly in data centers and industrial markets, is expected to enhance profitability [17]