Crude Prices Push Higher as Global Growth Prospects Improve

Core Insights - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing slight increases due to easing US-China trade tensions, which are expected to bolster economic growth and energy demand following an agreement between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping to extend a tariff truce and reduce trade barriers [1] Group 1: Price Movements - December WTI crude oil is up by +0.11 (+0.18%) and December RBOB gasoline is up by +0.0008 (+0.04%) [1] - Weekly EIA crude inventories unexpectedly fell, and gasoline supplies dropped to an 11-month low, contributing to positive price momentum [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Eurozone Q3 GDP rose by +0.2% quarter-on-quarter and +1.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, which is bullish for energy demand [3] - The Bank of Japan raised its 2025 GDP forecast for Japan to +0.7% from +0.6%, indicating a strengthening economy [3] Group 3: Supply Dynamics - Expectations of a decline in Russian crude supplies are supporting oil prices, following US sanctions on major Russian oil producers due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine [4] - The EU has also imposed sanctions on additional Russian entities and vessels, further constraining Russian oil exports [4] - Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have limited Russia's crude export capabilities, with total seaborne fuel shipments dropping to 1.88 million barrels per day (bpd) in early October, the lowest in over 3.25 years [5] Group 4: Storage and Future Outlook - Crude oil stored on stationary tankers increased by +12% week-on-week to 89.75 million barrels, indicating potential supply issues [6] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has forecasted a record global oil surplus of 4.0 million bpd for 2026, suggesting long-term supply challenges [6]