地区联储“倒戈”！分歧或进一步显现，美联储12月如何抉择

Core Views - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points has led to internal divisions among its members, with some advocating for maintaining the current rate and others pushing for a more aggressive reduction [2][3][4]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve voted 10-2 to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first instance of "dual dissent" since 2019 [2]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid argued for maintaining the current rate, citing a balanced labor market and potential long-term negative impacts on inflation if the Fed's commitment to the 2% target is questioned [2]. Internal Divisions - Several regional Fed presidents expressed skepticism about the need for further rate cuts, emphasizing the ongoing inflation risks and the need for clear evidence of economic downturns before making such decisions [3][4]. - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan stated that unless there is clear evidence of faster-than-expected inflation decline or a cooling labor market, the likelihood of another rate cut in December is low [3]. Market Expectations - Market expectations for a rate cut in December have dropped significantly from over 95% to around 60%, reflecting uncertainty due to government shutdowns and missing economic data [6]. - Economists from Deutsche Bank, Montreal Bank, and Goldman Sachs still believe a rate cut will occur in December, while others argue that the current economic indicators do not support such a move [6][7]. Future Considerations - The upcoming public speeches from Fed officials will be crucial in setting the tone for the December meeting, as their views may influence the market's assessment of future rate cuts [5]. - Analysts suggest that the threshold for further rate cuts may be higher than previously anticipated, requiring more substantial evidence to justify such actions [7].