地区联储“倒戈”！分歧或进一步显现 美联储12月如何抉择

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates by 25 basis points has created uncertainty regarding future policy directions, particularly with the December rate cut not being a "foregone conclusion" according to Chairman Powell [1][2]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Decision - The Federal Reserve's policy-making committee voted 10-2 to lower the benchmark interest rate to a range of 3.75%-4.00%, marking the first instance of "dual opposition" since 2019 [2]. - Kansas City Fed President Schmid expressed that the current labor market is balanced and any signs of weakness are likely due to structural changes rather than a slowdown in demand [2]. Divergence Among Officials - Several regional Fed presidents, including Dallas Fed President Logan and Cleveland Fed President Hammack, voiced their opposition to the rate cut, citing persistent inflation risks and the need for more evidence of economic downturns before further easing [3][4]. - The internal divisions within the Fed regarding the direction of monetary policy have been highlighted, with some officials advocating for maintaining current rates [4]. Market Expectations - Financial markets have reduced their expectations for a December rate cut to 60%, down from over 95% earlier in the week, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [5]. - The uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook, exacerbated by the government shutdown and lack of official data, has led to a split among Wall Street analysts regarding the likelihood of a rate cut in December [6]. Economic Outlook - Economists from Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and others maintain that the Fed will likely cut rates in December, while some analysts believe that more data is needed to justify such a move [7][8]. - The overall sentiment suggests that the threshold for further rate cuts may be higher than previously anticipated, with a focus on gathering more evidence before making decisions [7][8].