担忧供应过剩 OPEC+本周或继续小幅增产

Core Viewpoint - OPEC+ is slowing down its efforts to regain market share due to concerns about a potential oversupply in the oil market next year, with a likely agreement to slightly increase December's oil production target [1] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - Since April, OPEC+ has cumulatively increased its oil production target by over 2.7 million barrels per day, accounting for approximately 2.5% of global oil supply [1] - In the recent ministerial meeting, OPEC+ decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, although there are differing opinions among member countries [1] - Russia advocates for a moderate increase in production to avoid downward pressure on oil prices, while Saudi Arabia seeks to significantly boost production, potentially doubling or tripling the increase to a maximum of 548,000 barrels per day [1] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Concerns over oversupply led to a drop in international oil prices to a five-month low of $60 per barrel on October 20, but prices have since recovered to around $65 per barrel due to sanctions on Russia and optimistic trade negotiations [1] - RBC analyst Helima Croft predicts that unless there is clear evidence of a supply disruption, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC partners are unlikely to significantly increase production [2] - OPEC+ members are considering another increase of 137,000 barrels per day, while the possibility of pausing production increases also exists [2]