Sugar Prices Retreat on Higher Sugar Output in Brazil

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - Sugar prices have continued to decline, with NY sugar reaching a 5-year nearest-futures low and London sugar hitting a 4.75-year low [1] - The current decline in sugar prices is attributed to increased sugar output in Brazil and expectations of a global sugar surplus [2] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production - Brazil's Center-South sugar output in the first half of October increased by 1.3% year-on-year to 2.484 million tons [2] - The percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar by Brazil's sugar mills rose to 48.24% from 47.33% year-on-year [2] - Cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season through mid-October increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 36.016 million tons [2] - Projections indicate that Brazil's Center-South sugar production for 2026/27 will rise by 3.9% year-on-year to a record 44 million tons [2] Group 3: India's Sugar Production Outlook - India's sugar production is expected to increase by 19% year-on-year to 34.9 million tons for the 2025/26 season, following a significant decline in 2024/25 [3] - The Indian Meteorological Department reported cumulative monsoon rainfall of 937.2 mm, which is 8% above normal, indicating a strong monsoon that may lead to a bumper sugar crop [3] Group 4: Export Dynamics and Market Impact - India's sugar mills may export up to 4 million tons of sugar in 2025/26, exceeding earlier expectations of 2 million tons, due to a projected surplus [4] - The diversion of only 4 million tons of sugar for ethanol production in India is insufficient to alleviate the sugar surplus [4]