美联储降息叙事生变! 市场削减12月降息押注 “全球资产定价之锚”再度站稳4%上方

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected rise in U.S. Treasury yields this week is attributed to traders significantly reducing their interest rate cut bets following hawkish signals from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and resilient macroeconomic data, leading to a cooling of previously high expectations for rate cuts in December and 2026 [1][4]. Group 1: U.S. Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has stabilized above 4%, closing at 4.09% on Friday after dipping below 4% earlier in the week, reflecting a sudden shift in market sentiment [1]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have dropped to approximately 50%, down from over 90% prior to Powell's hawkish comments [1][4]. - The ongoing U.S. government budget deficit and rising debt outlook have pressured bond traders to demand higher term premiums, keeping the 10-year yield around 4% to 4.5% [3]. Group 2: Economic Data and Labor Market - Despite a slowdown in the labor market, economic growth remains balanced, and inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, leading to a cautious stance on further rate cuts [5][8]. - Recent employment data indicates a significant slowdown in hiring activity, yet it still shows resilience with slight growth, suggesting that the economy has not entered a phase of sustained negative growth [4][6]. Group 3: Federal Reserve's Stance - Hawkish comments from Fed officials, including Kansas City Fed President Schmid, emphasize the appropriateness of maintaining current policy rates due to persistent inflation concerns [5][8]. - The internal division among Fed officials regarding the timing of monetary policy easing is evident, with some advocating for continued rate cuts while others stress the need for caution [8][9]. Group 4: Corporate Bond Market and AI Investments - Meta Platforms Inc. issued up to $30 billion in bonds, indicating strong AI spending among U.S. tech giants, which is expected to enhance revenue generation [6]. - The upcoming bond issuance is likely to exert pressure on Treasury prices, contributing to higher long-term yields as investors adjust to new supply [6][7].