经济新旧动能转换步入右侧阶段产业升级、科技进步的“势”已形成

Core Viewpoint - The transformation of China's economy is entering a new phase, with a shift from old to new economic drivers, which is positively impacting the capital market ecosystem [1][2][6]. Economic Transformation - The transition from old to new economic drivers is seen as a trend, with the old economy's clearance benefiting the bond market, while the rise of the new economy is favorable for the stock market [1][2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to set the tone for medium to long-term development, with nominal GDP growth likely to improve next year, leading to slight profit growth expectations [2][6]. Liquidity and Investment Trends - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates twice this year and possibly three more times next year, contributing to a globally loose liquidity environment [2][5]. - Increased interest from foreign investors in Chinese assets is noted, alongside strong domestic demand for reallocation of funds from maturing deposits and wealth management products [2][5]. Market Strategy and Asset Allocation - A diversified portfolio including technology stocks, resource stocks, gold, and short-term bonds is recommended for risk diversification [3][4]. - The "anti-involution" theme is highlighted as beneficial for balancing supply and demand, improving the business environment, and enhancing corporate profitability [3][4]. Long-term Market Outlook - The long-term positive outlook for the Chinese capital market is supported by three main factors: the transition to new economic drivers, the influx of long-term capital, and the introduction of stabilizing funds to reduce market volatility [6]. - The capital market is expected to benefit from the structural support for technology innovation enterprises and the anticipated liquidity environment from the Federal Reserve's actions [5][6].