“聪明钱”嗅到油价反弹气息? 美国加码制裁俄油之后 对冲基金创纪录削减原油看跌仓位

Core Viewpoint - The recent sanctions imposed by the U.S. government on major Russian oil companies have led to a record reduction in bearish positions by global hedge funds in Brent crude oil futures, coinciding with a market adjustment to the "supply surplus" pessimism [1][5]. Group 1: Hedge Fund Activity - Global hedge funds reduced their short positions in Brent crude oil futures by 62,078 contracts, reaching a total of 135,790 contracts, marking the largest recorded decline in short positions since data collection began by ICE Futures Europe [1]. - This significant reduction in bearish sentiment among hedge funds reflects a shift in market expectations regarding oil supply, particularly following the U.S. sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil [1][6]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The sanctions are expected to substantially cut the supply from Russia, which is the second-largest oil producer in the OPEC+ alliance, thereby altering the global oil supply landscape [2][6]. - Despite a cooling demand growth, OPEC+ members have been increasing oil production, contributing to a bearish outlook on Brent crude prices, which have fallen over 15% this year [5][6]. Group 3: Impact of Sanctions - The sanctions represent one of the most severe measures taken by the U.S. against Russian energy exports during the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, affecting nearly half of Russia's oil production [6]. - The sanctions also extend to foreign financial institutions engaging in significant transactions with the sanctioned companies, potentially limiting their access to the U.S. financial system [6].