零度解读10月30日美联储利率决议发布会

Group 1: Core Views - The overall performance of the US economy is stable, but both of the central bank's targets face risks of deterioration [1][20] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates is seen as a move to support employment demand while easing inflationary pressures [20] - There is significant internal disagreement within the Federal Reserve regarding future monetary policy directions, with some members advocating for a pause in rate cuts [5][7] Group 2: Interest Rate Policy Direction - The Federal Reserve has observed rising repo rates and federal funds rates, leading to a decision to halt the balance sheet reduction starting December 1 [4] - The current policy rate is set between 3.75% and 4.0%, with a recent cut of 25 basis points [1][7] - The committee's decision reflects a mix of opinions on the economic outlook, with some members calling for a more cautious approach [5][9] Group 3: Inflation and Employment Situation - The September CPI data indicates inflation is close to the 2% target, but the absence of PPI data complicates the assessment of overall inflation trends [11][12] - Employment market dynamics are influenced by a significant reduction in new worker supply and a decrease in labor demand, leading to a unique equilibrium in the job market [12][14] - The Federal Reserve is cautious about the potential long-term impacts of tariffs on inflation, viewing them as a one-time effect rather than a persistent issue [11][15] Group 4: Asset Bubble and Macro Stability - Investment in data centers and AI is robust, with companies believing these investments will enhance productivity, indicating a disconnect from interest rate sensitivity [15][17] - The Federal Reserve does not assess the appropriateness of asset market valuations but focuses on the overall stability of the financial system [16][18] - Concerns about potential asset bubbles are rising, with the market's current enthusiasm reflecting a complex interplay of economic factors [20][19] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Independence - The reappointment process for regional Federal Reserve presidents is ongoing, with no immediate concerns raised by the current leadership [19] - The independence of the Federal Reserve is perceived as fragile, especially in light of political pressures and the potential influence of future leadership changes [19][20]