美国9月海运集装箱吞吐量暴跌，是关税还是需求放缓？｜全球贸易观察

Core Insights - The U.S. container import volume continued to decline in September, with an 8.4% year-over-year drop, marking the largest monthly decline in recent years [1] - The downward trend in container throughput is expected to persist and become more pronounced until 2026, according to industry analysts [1][6] Container Import Trends - In September, the top 10 U.S. ports saw a 6.6% year-over-year decrease in container throughput, contrasting with previous months' trends [1] - The decline in imports is attributed to seasonal demand weakness and cautious sentiment related to tariffs [1][3] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a 5.6% decrease in import cargo volume at major U.S. ports in 2025 due to new tariffs [3] Tariff Impact - The implementation of new tariffs has led to a rush to ports in previous months, with September showing a 12.8% drop in empty container imports at the Port of Oakland [3] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policies is causing significant economic unpredictability, affecting market demand [4] - The Drury East-West Contract Rate Index fell by 3% year-over-year, indicating a decline in shipping rates [4] Future Projections - The NRF predicts that the last four months of 2025 will see a 15.7% decline in container volume compared to the same period in 2024 [6] - Analysts expect to see double-digit percentage declines in cargo volumes at most U.S. ports in the coming months, continuing into 2026 [6] Global Supply Chain Adjustments - Global supply chain adjustments are occurring faster than anticipated, with manufacturers in countries facing high U.S. tariffs finding alternative markets more attractive [8] - Despite the decline in U.S. container throughput, global container throughput reached record highs in recent months [8] Economic Conditions - High inflation levels and a continuous decline in the manufacturing PMI in the U.S. are suppressing consumer spending, directly impacting container shipping demand from Asia [9] - The Federal Reserve Chairman indicated that additional tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, affecting consumer prices [9]