美国9月海运集装箱吞吐量暴跌 是关税还是需求放缓？

Core Insights - The article highlights a significant decline in U.S. container imports in September, attributed to the impact of tariffs and weakened domestic demand, with a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% to 230.8 million TEUs, marking the largest monthly drop in recent years [1][2][6] Group 1: Container Import Trends - U.S. container imports at the top 10 ports fell by 6.6% year-on-year in September, contrasting with previous months' trends [1][3] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) anticipates a 5.6% decline in import volumes at major U.S. ports in 2025 due to new tariffs [3][4] - The decline in imports is expected to continue, with predictions of significant decreases in container throughput lasting until 2026 [1][8] Group 2: Factors Influencing Decline - The drop in imports is attributed to seasonal demand weakness and cautious sentiment related to tariffs [2] - Inflation has also contributed to a decrease in domestic demand, indicating a decline in U.S. consumer purchasing power [2][11] - The uncertainty caused by fluctuating tariff policies has led to cautious behavior among shippers and importers, particularly affecting small and medium-sized retailers [5][11] Group 3: Future Projections - The McCown report warns of a sustained and significant decline in U.S. container throughput if current tariff policies remain unchanged [8] - Despite a projected 15.2% increase in total inbound freight in 2024, the NRF expects a 15.7% decrease in container volumes in the last four months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 [8] - Global supply chain adjustments are occurring faster than anticipated, with manufacturers in countries facing high U.S. tariffs seeking more attractive markets [10][11] Group 4: Economic Context - The Drury East-West contract rate index has seen a 3% year-on-year decline, reflecting reduced market demand [5] - U.S. inflation remains high, and the manufacturing PMI has contracted for five consecutive months, indicating a challenging economic environment for container imports [11][12] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Powell noted that additional tariffs could lead to a temporary increase in inflation, impacting consumer prices [12]