Ford Stock: The Quarter That Coulda, Woulda, Shoulda Been Great

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company has faced significant challenges in 2023, including record vehicle recalls, changing trade policies, the removal of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit, and a supplier fire impacting F-Series truck production [1][2] Financial Performance - Despite challenges, Ford's third-quarter results exceeded estimates, but the company is now lowering its full-year guidance for adjusted EBIT to $6 billion to $6.5 billion, down from a previous range of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion [2][5] Impact of Supplier Fire - The Novelis aluminum plant fire in New York is expected to create a headwind of $1.5 billion to $2 billion for adjusted EBIT in 2025, affecting full-year cash flow and potentially the upcoming supplemental dividend [3][4] - Ford plans to mitigate at least $1 billion of adjusted EBIT in 2026 and is adding 1,000 workers to affected plants to recover about half of the 100,000 units expected to be lost this year due to the fire [4][3] Trade Policy Challenges - Ford is also dealing with the financial impact of tariffs on imported vehicles and parts, which cost the company $700 million in the third quarter, with a full-year net impact of approximately $1 billion [6]