Shang Hai Zheng Quan Bao·2025-11-01 12:57Core Viewpoint - The high-end liquor industry is struggling with growth, while mid-range and regional liquor companies are experiencing significant declines in performance, as evidenced by the third-quarter reports of 20 A-share liquor companies, highlighting challenges such as weak consumption, high channel inventory, and falling prices [1][8]. Company Performance Summary - Guizhou Moutai reported revenue of 130.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.32%, and a net profit of 64.6 billion yuan, up 6.25% [2][9]. - Wuliangye's revenue was 60.9 billion yuan, down 10.26%, with a net profit of 21.5 billion yuan, a decline of 13.72% [2][11]. - Shanxi Fenjiu achieved revenue of 32.9 billion yuan, a 5.00% increase, but its net profit fell by 1.4% to 39.7 billion yuan [2][10]. - Luzhou Laojiao's revenue decreased by 4.84% to 23.1 billion yuan, with a net profit of 10.8 billion yuan, down 7.17% [2][12]. - The performance of regional liquor companies like Kuaijie and Yingjia Gongjiu showed significant declines, with Kuaijie reporting a 46.23% drop in revenue and a 92.6% decrease in net profit [4][6]. Industry Trends - The third quarter showed a clear downward trend, with many regional liquor companies experiencing accelerated declines, and some even reporting losses [3][8]. - The "Matthew Effect" is becoming more pronounced, with only Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu achieving positive growth in both revenue and net profit among the 20 companies [8][13]. - The overall industry is undergoing a profound supply-side adjustment, with strong brand power and national distribution allowing leading companies to withstand cyclical fluctuations, while smaller companies face greater challenges [13]. Market Outlook - Expectations for the upcoming Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day indicate a potential 20%-30% decline in overall liquor demand, with inventory expected to increase by 10%-20% [13]. - The current high channel inventory and weak consumption scenarios suggest that the liquor industry will continue to face significant pressure into the 2026 Spring Festival [13].