泰机构预测泰铢将继续升值

Core Viewpoint - The Thai Baht is expected to appreciate against the US Dollar from 2025 to 2026, driven by strong economic fundamentals and external factors [1] Economic Forecast - The average exchange rate for USD to THB in 2025 is projected to be 32.9, with a range of 32.4 to 33.4, representing an appreciation of approximately 6.8% compared to the previous year [1] - For 2026, the average exchange rate is expected to be around 31.8, with a range of 31.3 to 32.3, indicating a further appreciation of 3.2% from 2025 [1] Factors Influencing Baht Appreciation - The appreciation of the Baht is influenced by four main factors: 1. Continued weakening of the US Dollar providing external support for the Baht [1] 2. Persistent fiscal surplus and strong trade performance in Thailand, establishing a solid economic foundation [1] 3. Recovery of international investor confidence leading to sustained capital inflows into Thai bonds and stock markets [1] 4. Rising global gold prices providing additional support for the Baht [1] Short-term Uncertainties - Despite the positive outlook, there are several short-term uncertainties affecting the Baht's appreciation, including: - Temporary strengthening of the US Dollar [1] - Volatility in global capital flows [1] - Geopolitical tensions and trade frictions [1] - Fluctuations in international oil and commodity prices [1] External Influences on Competitiveness - Global economic conditions, changes in the energy market, and fluctuations in major currencies will significantly impact Thailand's export competitiveness and the recovery of the foreign tourist market [1]