多政策推动房地产市场止跌回稳

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market has shown signs of recovery since September, with second-hand housing transactions increasing year-on-year and month-on-month, while the new housing market exhibits a mixed performance. Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen have adjusted their housing policies, creating positive expectations and stimulating potential demand [1][2]. Policy Adjustments - Since August, major cities have optimized their purchase restrictions to boost the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. For instance, Beijing allows eligible families to purchase unlimited properties outside the Fifth Ring Road, while Shanghai and Shenzhen have also relaxed their purchase limits [2]. - Over 200 provinces and cities have introduced more than 510 policies to stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on urban renewal, demand activation, and supply optimization [1][3]. Market Activity - In September, key cities experienced increased market activity, with Beijing's second-hand housing transactions rising by 17.7% year-on-year and 17.2% month-on-month, reaching a six-month high. Shanghai and Shenzhen also reported significant increases in both new and second-hand housing transactions [4]. - However, in October, transaction volumes in key cities declined compared to the same period last year, indicating a potential cooling off after the initial recovery [4]. Consumer Behavior - The new policies have led to a shift in consumer behavior, with an increase in demand for higher-quality and higher-priced properties. For example, the average price of new homes in Shenzhen rose by 29% following the policy adjustments [6]. - Promotional activities by developers during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival have also contributed to maintaining interest in quality projects in core cities [7]. Financial Support Measures - Various regions have enhanced financial support for homebuyers, including increasing the loan limits for public housing funds and offering substantial subsidies for families with multiple children [8]. - Developers are actively promoting their properties with discounts and incentives, aiming to attract buyers during the peak sales season [8][9]. Future Outlook - Experts anticipate that policies will continue to focus on stabilizing expectations, activating demand, and optimizing supply in the fourth quarter. There is potential for further policy adjustments, such as lowering down payment ratios and enhancing loan conditions [3][5]. - The market is expected to benefit from ongoing support measures, including the acceleration of affordable housing projects and urban village renovations, which could inject new momentum into the market [9].