Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-11-02 00:23Core Viewpoint - COSCO Shipping Energy's performance for the first three quarters of 2025 shows a decline in revenue and net profit, but the third quarter indicates signs of recovery due to non-recurring gains from asset sales [1][2]. Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 17.108 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.723 billion yuan, down 21.22%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.484 billion yuan, down 25.85% [1]. - In Q3 alone, revenue was 5.466 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.55%; net profit attributable to shareholders was 853 million yuan, an increase of 4.37%; and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 710 million yuan, down 3.00% [1]. Segment Performance - LNG transportation reported a net profit of 250 million yuan, down 11.03% year-on-year but up 13.64% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - Domestic oil tanker gross profit was 359 million yuan, down 15.33% year-on-year but up 9.12% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - International oil tanker gross profit was 495 million yuan, down 19.12% year-on-year and down 34.18% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - LPG and chemical transportation combined gross profit was 21 million yuan [2]. Operational Developments - The company’s wholly-owned subsidiary has leased six VLCCs, enhancing its capacity with a mix of fixed and variable rental agreements [3]. - The fixed rental for three vessels is approximately 19,090 USD/day, while the other three have a base rental of 19,090 USD/day with profit-sharing above a certain rate [3]. - Profitability estimates indicate that for VLCC TD3C-TCE rates of 40,000 to 100,000 USD/day, net profit per vessel could range from 0.9 to 5.4 million USD/day [3]. Market Outlook - Winter 2025 is expected to see strong and sustained freight rates, with early seasonal demand pushing rates close to 100,000 USD/day [4]. - The average freight rate for September-October has surpassed five-year records, with expectations for further increases in November [4]. - The long-term outlook for 2026-2027 is optimistic, with upward adjustments to profit forecasts based on strengthening fundamentals [4]. Profit Forecasts - The company maintains its 2025 net profit forecast at 4.462 billion yuan, while increasing the 2026-2027 forecasts to 6.075 billion and 7.230 billion yuan, respectively [4]. - The company's reset cost is approximately 55 billion yuan, with a P/NAV ratio of 1.34 times; future vessel price increases could raise reset costs significantly [4].