广和通(300638)：看好公司长期持续受益端侧AI机遇

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, but there are signs of recovery in the IoT module market and potential growth in AI computing at the edge, leading to a "buy" rating [1][3]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue was 5.366 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 13.69%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 316 million, down 51.50% [1]. - In Q3 2025, the company's revenue was 1.659 billion, a year-on-year decline of 22.56%, with a net profit of 98 million, down 69.14% [1]. - Excluding the impact of the wireless communication module business, the revenue and net profit from continuing operations for the first three quarters showed a year-on-year increase of 7.32% and a decrease of 2.19%, respectively [1]. Gross Margin and Expense Control - The overall gross margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 17.14%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.58 percentage points [2]. - In Q3 2025, the gross margin was 18.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.33 percentage points but an increase of 2.90 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. - The company maintained stable expense control, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios for the first three quarters at 2.20%, 2.02%, and 6.69%, respectively, all showing year-on-year declines [2]. Future Outlook - Demand for overseas FWA and general IoT businesses is expected to continue improving, with potential for stable recovery in profitability as the company's shipment structure improves [2]. - The trend of AI computing moving from cloud to edge is anticipated to create significant opportunities for the company, particularly in markets like AIPC and outdoor robotics [2]. Rating and Valuation - The company adjusted its revenue and profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 449 million, 578 million, and 689 million, respectively, with adjustments of -11%, -4%, and -2% [3]. - The target price is set at 32.41, based on a projected PE of 65x for 2025, reflecting an increase from the previous estimate of 55x due to comparable company valuation improvements [3].