北方华创(002371)：看好半导体设备龙头平台化竞争力

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by accelerated revenue recognition and better-than-expected income from the acquisition of ChipSource, although net profit fell short of expectations due to increased R&D expenses and losses from ChipSource [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 111.60 billion yuan, representing a year-over-year increase of 39.19% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 40.63% [1][2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 19.22 billion yuan, up 14.60% year-over-year and 18.13% quarter-over-quarter [1][2]. - The net profit margin for Q3 was 17.23%, down 3.75 percentage points year-over-year and 3.28 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to changes in product mix and increased expenses [1][2]. Product and Market Development - The company experienced significant revenue growth in etching, thin film, thermal processing, and wet processing equipment, with a strong entry into ion implantation and coating development markets [1][3]. - In the first half of 2025, etching equipment revenue exceeded 5 billion yuan, thin film deposition equipment revenue surpassed 6.5 billion yuan, thermal processing equipment revenue exceeded 1 billion yuan, and wet processing equipment revenue exceeded 500 million yuan [3]. Strategic Expansion - The company officially entered the ion implantation equipment market in March 2025 and completed the acquisition of ChipSource, expanding its product matrix and enhancing its platform advantages [4]. - From 2026 to 2028, global spending on 300mm wafer fab equipment is projected to reach 374 billion USD, with China expected to lead in spending, benefiting from ongoing national policy support [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Following the consolidation of ChipSource, revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted upward, while net profit forecasts have been revised downward due to increased R&D expenses [5]. - The target price has been raised to 515.42 yuan based on a comparable company average PE of 41.3 times for 2026, maintaining a "buy" rating [5].