国际观察｜内外不确定性犹存 欧元区经济复苏受掣肘

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone economy is experiencing a fragile recovery with a growth of 0.2% in the third quarter, but significant downward risks continue to hinder its prospects [1][2]. Economic Performance Disparities - The economic performance of major Eurozone economies is diverging, with France growing by 0.5% driven by trade and domestic demand, while Germany and Italy are stagnating, barely avoiding recession [2][5]. - Germany's economy showed zero growth in the third quarter following a contraction of 0.2% in the second quarter, becoming a key constraint on the overall Eurozone economic acceleration [2][5]. - France is facing political and fiscal challenges despite its growth, with warnings from the central bank about the risk of "gradual suffocation" due to rising debt [2][5]. Monetary Policy and Inflation - The European Central Bank (ECB) has maintained its key interest rates unchanged for the third consecutive time, entering a phase of "extended observation" due to weak economic recovery and declining inflation [3][4]. - The ECB is balancing between stabilizing prices and supporting growth amid ongoing global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which contribute to an uncertain inflation outlook [3][4]. - Economists suggest that the ECB is likely to maintain its current stance, with a high threshold for future rate cuts, as inflation is expected to stabilize around 2% over the next two years [4][5]. Structural Challenges and External Risks - The Eurozone economy has been characterized by low overall growth and periodic stagnation, with cautious investment sentiment among businesses due to weak external demand and increased trade uncertainties [5][6]. - The Eurozone's export challenges are exacerbated by U.S. tariff policies and a strong euro, despite a trade agreement reached in July between the U.S. and the EU [5][6]. - Internal policy risks and external economic slowdowns are significant concerns, leading to a cautious outlook on whether the Eurozone economy will experience sustained growth in the coming year [5][6].