Down 36% in Two Weeks, Is This Metals Stock Ready to Rebound?

Core Insights - The Metals Company (TMC) has seen significant stock volatility, with a 36.1% decline following a 50% increase earlier in October, despite being up over 500% year-to-date [1][9] - The company focuses on extracting and refining polymetallic nodules from the Pacific Ocean seafloor, which are rich in manganese, cobalt, nickel, and copper, essential for electric vehicle batteries [2][3][4] - TMC has not yet commenced commercial operations and lacks the necessary permits for collection and processing, making it a highly speculative investment [5][6] Company Overview - The Metals Company is engaged in the collection and processing of metals from the seafloor, specifically targeting polymetallic nodules found in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone (CCZ) [2][4] - The CCZ is located in international waters and is regulated by the International Seabed Authority (ISA), where TMC holds exploration contracts but no collection contracts [6] Market Context - The recent surge in TMC's stock was influenced by China's tightening of export controls on critical metals, raising concerns about global supply chain disruptions [8][9] - The U.S. and other economies view copper, cobalt, nickel, and manganese as critical metals, with China being a major producer [7] Future Prospects - There is potential for increased regulatory sympathy towards new sources of critical metals due to geopolitical tensions, particularly with China [10] - TMC faces significant operational challenges, including a lack of excavation equipment and processing facilities, with commercial production not expected until Q4 2027 and full-scale operations by 2043 [11] - Short-term stock recovery appears unlikely unless there is a significant disruption in the supply of metals TMC plans to mine [12]